Saturday, 29 June 2019

How to use RSI effectively in Trading


Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a well-known technical indicators among traders. However, some of traders use it in a traditional way or use it wrongly. In this topic we will cover some profitable ways to use RSI.
 What is RSI?

 Relative Strength Index (RSI) was developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978. It is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements. Many traders use it to spot the overbought and oversold state of the market to initiate long or short position.

The readings of the indicator fluctuate between 0 and 100. The RSI is considered overbought when above 70 and oversold when below 30.

How to use RSI profitably?

1) Chart Pattern
There are a number of chart patterns  like Head and Shoulders, Double Tops , Pennants and many more. We see them forming in price charts. Amazingly, they are also formed in RSI even if they don't show up in price charts.

Let's take an example: 

This is WTI Crude Oil daily chart. If we look at the RSI, we will clearly see a Double Bottom pattern which doesn't appear in the price chart.

We would have traded this on a breakout on the RSI and made 10% profit.




usoil


2) Divergence

There are two kinds of divergence

a. Bearish divergence : occurs when price forms higher highs  while the RSI forms lower highs.

b. Bullish divergence : occurs when price forms lower lows while the RSI forms higher lows.

The divergence between price and RSI warns us of the market reversal.




Let's take an example:

In the chart below, the RSI formed a lower high while the price formed a higher high on the OIL daily chart. It's a bearish divergence,thus, a short position should be taken with stop loss placed above the  higher high on the price chart.

After this trade, Oil dropped more than 20%.


usoil daily









Let's take another example:

  In the chart below, the RSI formed a higher low while the price formed a lower low on the ETHUSD daily chart. It's a bullish divergence,thus, a long position should be taken with stop loss placed below the  lower low on the price chart.

 After this trade, ETHUSD rose a 100%.

ethusd

Also,in the chart below, the RSI formed a higher low while the price formed a lower low on the AUD/USD daily chart. It's a bullish divergence,hence, a long position should be taken with stop loss placed below the  lower low on the price chart.

 After this trade, AUD/USD rose 150 pips.

AUDUSD



 3) Trend Lines

They provide us with support and resistance points where we can buy or sell. Most importantly, many traders look for Breakout and Breakdown of the trend lines as they give us huge potential profits. You should go long on Breakout and short on breakdown. In this article we will look for trend lines that show up on the RSI not on the price chart.

Let's take several examples to demonstrate this:


Firstly, this is WTI Crude Oil daily chart. If you look at the RSI, you will notice that there is a breakout of a bearish trend line.This is a bullish sign. After the breakout on the RSI, oil went up 10%.


USOIL


Below is a daily chart of Gold. As you can see the resistance line on the RSI was broken and this is a sign to go long on this trade. Gold rose sharply after the breakout.


GOLD

And finally we get back again to Oil chart. If you look at the RSI , you can see the support line was broken down. This is a bearish sign. If you had taken this trade, you would have ended  up with 20% profit.

Although there is also a breakdown on price chart  but the signal came earlier from the RSI.


WTI

Friday, 14 June 2019

Dead Cat Bounce Trading Strategy

What is A Dead Cat Bounce

CAT


It is a correction of the price during a strong bearish trend either because of some news or because of profit taking. Unprofessional traders can't distinguish it from a real reversal trend which may cause them huge losses when the price resume it's bearish way.

  Numerous trend indicators can help any trader to spot a real reversal in trend than a fake one ( dead cat bounce) such as Moving averages, MACD and Parabolic SAR.

How to trade Dead Cat Bounce?

This is WTI Crude Oil daily chart. As we can see the price started to went up. However, neither the moving averages nor the Parabolic SAR  did signal a reversal. Now, we need a confirmation of a Dead Cat Bounce which happened when the price plummeted below the last low at $ 58.13 and we could open a short position at this level.


USOIL CHART Analysis


Let's take another example. This is USD/JPY daily chart. After a hard decline the pair stared to correct up. In spite of that, the moving averages and RSI didn't support a reversal in price, thus, we waited the price to break down the last low at 109.30 to go short.


USDJPY



As usual, you have to trade wise and not take any analysis as a guarantee, so you should use stop loss on any trade you open. On the example above you could place the stop loss above the last high.